Will the recession set up a new 10 year upswing?

The powerpoint video presentation here (10 minutes) argues that it will. In brief, recessions pave the way for sustained upswings (typically 9-10 years in the US) for 4 reasons. First, it creates pent-up demands. Second, the recession depresses confidence which takes years to restore. Third, the recession depresses inflation, especially wages which also takes years to come back up. Finally, recessions make the financial sector more cautious, both with granting credit and with taking risks. Again, the result is a prolonged upswing as the process plays out.

For full details see the presentation, which also discusses whether this Covid-led recession is different to a normal one.